Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™
Retracement Continues, Still in Long-Term Downtrend
Last week the market was up again, breaking it's streak of lower lows and higher highs, however, it still has not recouped the single-week loss from 3 weeks ago (see large red candle stick- 3rd in from the right), nor has it reached the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2nd high (see last week's post, right below this one).
What does this mean?
It means that the market is still in a long-term downtrend and we will remain invested inverse to the market until it proves otherwise. Even though the last two weeks have had slight up-ticks, we are not chasing short term trends, we are using a long-term trend following strategy that requires discipline and patience. If / when the market demonstrates that it's shifting to a long-term up-trend, we will shift our portfolios accordingly. Until then, we will remain positioned to make money in a down-trending market. At this point in time we believe that this prolonged down-trending market has not reached it's bottom and it is entirely possible that in the coming weeks we may see some acceleration to the downside. Only time will tell.
Weekly Chart of the Standard & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500 AKA "The Market")