Nearing Intermediate Top

Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

Intermediate Top likely in the near future

Last week the market “sleepwalked” its way almost to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level closing at 4133 on average to low volume with virtually no change for the week.  As we have mentioned most corrections will culminate somewhere between the 50% to 60% Fibonacci levels.  As you can see on the weekly and monthly charts, these levels are 4148 for the 50% level and 4305 for the 60% level.  For the technical pattern to look right, I think that the market needs a little bit more upside, maybe 2% or so, to put in an intermediate top.  If so, an intermediate top could very well be between these two levels, my guess is somewhere around 4225 to 4250.  If the market stays below the 4305 level, it’s likely still in a corrective mode.  This could very well be accomplished within the next couple of weeks.  If it exceeds 4305 that would be bullish, however if it fails to do so and runs out of steam and starts to head downward from these levels, then that would fit very well into the bearish mapping that I have been following for months.  Only time will tell.

Weekly Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)

​Monthly Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)

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