Market Down ~1%

Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

The market moved down a little over 1% from last week’s report.  On Friday, June 30th, the market had an intra-day high of 4458 slightly exceeding the previous high on June 16th.  These two highs were above the very common 61% Fibonacci retracement level of 4305 (see "weekly" chart below).  Since the 16th, the market had been moving downward, however the week before last week there was a rally that retraced the entire downward move since the high of June 16th. So, then we were right back where we were on the 16th.  It is possible that the market has finished with this intermediate top (which would be called a double top- see the last 2 vertical bars on the right side of the chart) and is ready to continue the bear market.  However, if the market were to persist with upward bullish action and maintain this current level or higher, it would likely push our indicators into a BUY mode. Time will tell if this turns out to be an intermediate top in a continuing bear market or a breakout into a possible new BULL market. 

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