Bear Rally Topping
Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™
Last week the market had another very small rally- about 1%. There have been about four bear market rallies so far this year, each of which has retraced about 50%to 61%of the previous decline. Although these rallies in a Bear Market can be quite impressive, we are still in a definite downtrend if we continue to have lower lows and lower highs with elevated levels of volatility in both has persisted all year long. I would draw your attention to this week’s weekly chart that shows last week’s rally achieved reaching the 61%(4006) retracement of the Aug 16th to Oct 14th decline with a high last week of 4034. The test this week was to see if this resistance area of 4006 holds or not. The week before last week this area was penetrated with an intra-week high of 4028 but was not able to hold and closed below the 4006 area at 3965, last week the market was able to close above it at 4026. So only time will tell if this week it can hold above that level in an effort to sustain the rally.
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