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S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "BUY" All recent attempts by the market to generate momentum and break above the all-time high from early June have been shut down so far. When this continues for a prolonged period of time, the market is consolidating and momentum is slowing. Much like an airplane that is climbing or holding level, when it loses enough momentum, it will drop. It is possible that something could inject some momentum back into the market, but the indicators seem to be saying that a stall is more likely at this point. As a result, we have been 75% in cash and 25% invested in equities. We remain poised to react to either a breakout to the downside or the upside. In addition to this market update, we wanted to report that we have officially launched our buffered strategies, which capture performance from the S&P and NASDAQ indices, but also have some downside protection. We have 3 options: Buffered Growth, Buffered Protect, and Buffered Fortress. Also, our 3rd party money management strategies have been performing exceptionally well. These strategies are more volatile, but have excellent potential. In general, we really like the idea of our clients using multiple strategies to meet their investment objectives. We are in the process of reviewing client portfolios and evaluating how we can integrate these new options into our clients' portfolios where it makes sense. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have questions and your annual review is a ways off.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "BUY" In the past few weeks the market has been attempting to move up, however, the momentum has slowed so much that it has made some significant pull-backs. Both our "active" and "core" models have been predominantly in cash and in the past few days we have moved them to 95% cash. Although we are still in a "buy" position, it is very fragile and could easily cross over to a "sell". So far, today's market activity has been negative, which confirms our position of caution and may end up moving the signal to "sell". The overall "buy" or "sell" signal is important for those of you wanting guidance on your 401k account allocations. If / when we're in a "sell" position, our general advice is to change your allocation to something more conservative that has little or no exposure to equities (bonds are often a good alternative). We would be happy to review your options discuss reallocation with you.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "BUY" In the past few weeks the market momentum has slowed significantly and we have sold most of the equities in our "active" model and are now 75% cash. We are monitoring things closely and will buy back in as there are equities that meet our criteria of solid returns and low volatility. In the mean time, we will patiently watch and wait.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "BUY" Based on our technical indicators, we switched back into a "BUY" position on April 16th. In the past week, the market has continued to be more positive than negative, however, it's been a bit of a bumpy ride. This morning, we moved from 60% invested in the "active" model to 80% invested. As you will notice in the chart below, the 12 positions that we were in yesterday (plus 40% cash) out-performed the S&P, which had a good day in it's own right. Today's final results have not yet posted, but they are positive and should bring the "active" model to better than 6% YTD, and ahead of the S&P YTD. Should market conditions continue to improve, we will add more positions and return to 100% invested in the "active" model. The "core" model continues to remain stable with little to no growth. If the market becomes less volatile, this will open the door for more growth-oriented securities in that model. Until then, we will settle for stable in the "core" model.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" The market took another major step upward last week. Although our signal is still technically a "sell", it is very close to a "buy". With so much hanging in the balance in the middle east, we are being extremely cautious about investing more heavily. The "active" model is currently 90% in cash, and the "core" is 70% in cash. We will continue to watch the technical indicators and respond accordingly.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" The market made a valiant effort to reverse it's downward trajectory last week. This week will be telling in terms of it being able to break the "ball bouncing down a flight of stairs" pattern that we've been seeing (see red line below). In the mean time, inside the STAY strategy, we sold 4 securities in the "active" model that were no longer meeting the criteria we require. The "active" model is now holding 2 securities invested at 5% each, leaving 90% in cash. The "core" model is invested in 6 securities at 5% each, leaving it with 70% in cash. We will continue to look for securities that are moving up, in spite of what the market is doing, and invest cautiously, as the market is still proving to be quite volatile and prone to change rapidly in either direction.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" The market continues to feel the stress of the situation in the middle east. The S&P is now down more than 7%, YTD. The S.T.A.Y. strategy, however, is comfortably marching upward, about 5% YTD. Currently, the "active" model is holding 6 positions (30% invested, 70% cash). Earlier today, we positions in the "core" model, to get it ~ 30% invested as well. Although we have found some securities that are thriving in this environment, things can change quickly, so we will remain vigilant. (Chart below updated after market close on 3.27.2026)  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" The market continues to react to the daily headlines in these tumultuous times, and as you can tell from the red line below, the news has been mostly bad. Our active management strategy, which is defensive in nature, has protected our "core" and "active" models from much of the recent volatility. Late last week, a handful of securities became eligible for investment in our "active" model, based on how they have been performing. The "active" model is now 30% invested (6 different securities at ~ 5% each) and 70% cash. You will see the impact of this by noticing the small move up at the end of the green line below. The "core" model is now 100% cash. Today, we have included a second graph which shows the performance of the S.T.A.Y. strategy models over the last 15 months and contrasts them with the S&P 500 (AKA, "the market"). The big picture illustrates the defensive nature of the S.T.A.Y. strategy. It is evident that great effort is being made to avoid major drawdowns and that, over time, defense wins, especially in volatile markets.   S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" Persistent market volatility continues to be the theme. Uncertainty is often correlated to volatility, and with so many uncertainties in our current geopolitical situation, the market is dictating that we remain in a protective mode and therefore, both our "active" and our "core" models remain 85% and 90% in cash, respectively. We will continue to monitor the market and look for opportunities to cautiously move back in to securities that are showing a propensity for upward movement. We will keep you posted, but for now, we will continue to watch from the sidelines.  S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: "SELL" The market was very volatile yesterday, with the S&P swinging from way down and back into positive territory. Our "active" model was down .75% yesterday and our "core" model was down a full 1%. Today the market succumbed to downward pressure and closed about 1% down (not pictured on graph below). We took action and sold securities that had violated our criteria for investing early in the day, leaving the majority of our assets in cash. Both of our models will remain there until the market determines it's next move.  |
208.376.0091Disclaimer: past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. © Copyright - Advanced Financial Solutions, Inc.
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