S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio:  "BUY"
The market appears to be in a "wait and see" mode with little volatility up or down. It is potentially awaiting results from our upcoming election. 

We will continue to monitor it daily and make any necessary changes. Until then, we will remain invested in the market. 

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

S.T.A.Y. Plus™ current position for Active portion of portfolio:  "BUY"

The last two weeks in the market have been punctuated by sharp movements in opposite directions (see weekly chart below). As you may remember, the S.T.A.Y. Plus™ strategy is defensive in nature and designed to avoid market crashes. It is not necessarily trying to take advantage of short-term moves of ~ 5% in either direction. We sometimes pay a premium for this, but over the long haul, we have seen it pay huge dividends during larger market moves (up or down), which tends to be where fortunes are made or lost over time.  

We are continuing to monitor market movements daily and we will make adjustments according to the mathematical indicators used in our proprietary system. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or concerns.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

Slowing momentum caught up with the market
 
Last week we commented that since the "BUY" signal of August 14th, the market had continued its upward movement, however with the development of slowing momentum. The week before last, the market made a significant adjustment downward, about a 2% drop which put our indicators into a caution mode.  Last week the selling pressure continued, which put our indicators into a "SELL" signal which was executed Friday.   Therefore, as of last Friday we converted to an inverse, defensive position and will remain there until a "BUY" signal is issued.  It is too early to tell if this selling is going to result in just an Intermediate correction (5% - 10%) or morph into a Major (10% - 15%), Primary (15% - 20%) or in excess of a 20% correction, Bear market territory.  Only time will tell.  We are ready to play Offense or Defense, based on whatever the market gives us.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio:  BUY – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

Last week we commented that since the "BUY" signal of July 14th the market had continued its upward movement, however with the development of slowing momentum.  This week, the market has made a fairly significant adjustment downward as of the Wednesday close, about a 2% drop.  This has put our indicators into a caution mode, which could be followed by a "SELL" signal if there is more selling pressure, or it could resume the uptrend after catching its breath by means of a minor correction.  Only time will tell, and we are prepared to take action if needed based on the results that the market brings us.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio:  BUY – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

Continuing to move upward with slowing momentum
Since the BUY signal was given on the 14th of August, the market has continued to move upward.  However, as it is approaching the previous highs it is experiencing some hesitation.  This slowing of momentum is quite common and may result in the market consolidating for a while at this level before making its next surge either up or down.  For now, our technical indicators are positive, so no action needing to be taken for the time being.  We will keep you posted.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio:  BUY – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

The market has confirmed it's breakout, reversing direction from the previous downtrend. We will stay invested accordingly until our technical indicators signal otherwise. A shift to inverse is typically based on a minor correction and sometime minor corrections turn into major corrections. Our primary goal is to avoid a major market crashes, and our secondary goal is to grow our portfolios in all market conditions. The last move to inverse and back has accomplished both. ​

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

Current position for Active portion of portfolio:  BUY – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

Significant technical area of support/resistance
As was reported yesterday, the area of support/resistance was broken through to the upside.  This action changed our algorithm of technical indicators to a BUY.  Therefore, equity positions are being changed back to a position in line with the upward trend of the market.  We will share more details of this move on Monday.

Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

Summary: after the serious downward pressure from the past few weeks, the market now appears to be catching its breath until it decides it's next move. 

​Technical Details: 
As the market moves up and down, technically speaking, there are areas that are referred to as "support" or "resistance".
Support is a price area on a chart where the market seems to find support as it is in the process of a downtrend.  Often these areas align with significant technical indicators such as moving average crossings, previous highs and lows or previous pivot points like 38%, 50% or 61% Fibonacci retracement levels in the chart.  The well-developed practice of technical analysis relies on these areas to determine probabilities of the future path of the market.  

When the market appears to have reached a given support level, it will typically begin to consolidate (move up and down in somewhat of a sideways motion) for a period of days, occasionally weeks until it breaks out to either the downside or upside of this consolidation area, sometimes referred to as a trading channel.  A breakout from this channel is typically signals the direction of the next leg of either an uptrend or downtrend.  Another phenomenon surrounding a breakout event is that the previous support, after being broken to the downside, now becomes the next resistance point when the market eventually tries to rally upwards.  

Currently the market is demonstrating a support/resistance area for the S&P500 at 5340 (+/– 20 points).  This area contains the 20 week moving average as well as some 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement areas and additional technical indicators too numerous to detail out in this weekly report.  So, only time will tell, which direction the market will move out of this area.  We are continuing to monitor and will take action accordingly.  In the meantime, the market has continued in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs since the all-time high of 5669 on 7/16/2024, which very interestingly was the 161% Fibonacci level of the rally from the low of 4103 of 10/27/2023 that we reported on last week.  The S.T.A.Y.™ strategy went into an inverse position based on these various technical indicators on 7/22/2024 and remains until the algorithms show otherwise.  We will keep you posted.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

Current position for Active portion of portfolio: SELL – S.T.A.Y. Plus™

The market has developed at least an Intermediate term correction.  We define corrections in the following categories;  a Minor correction is a 1% – 5% pullback, Intermediate 6% - 10%, Major 10% - 15% and Primary a 15% - 20%.  Any correction greater than 20% is defined as a Bear Market correction.
 A long-term bull market can have multiple minor, intermediate, major and even primary corrections over a period of many months and years.  Although this current correction has been significant as the S&P500 has had over a 6 1/2% correction from its high in mid-July to it’s low of last week, we would term it as an intermediate correction so far.  This correction could turn out to be like the correction that happened earlier in April of this year.  However, there is some hint that a much larger correction could be developing based on the 161% Fibonacci level seen in the monthly chart.  On the monthly chart, you can see that the market turned downward right at the 161% Fibonacci level, which according to Elliot Wave theory, could indicate that this turn was the beginning a more significant correction such as a major or primary correction, or even the top before the beginning of a bear market.    Only time will tell.  We will continue to monitor this correction that has had a series of at least two lower highs and two lower lows confirming a definite downtrend.  However, if this trend changes, we will be quick to change our equites position from an inverse position to one that is in line with a bullish upward direction of the market.

​Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)

​Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)