S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ From the last trading day of 2023 until now the market has had four down days, four up days and two sideways days. During that time we had a very short switch to inverse and then back to being long the market, which is now our current position. We are in a “mountain road “ environment but expect that this will be short term and that the market will begin to make a more decisive indication as to its longer term direction in the near future. We will keep you posted. By way of review, you can see that we have included two different charts. One is a "Weekly" chart of the S&P 500 index (AKA "the market"), and the other is a "Monthly" chart of the S&P 500 index. Each bar represents the aggregation of either a week or a month's activity. The top of the red bars represent the opening price and the bottom of the red bar represents the closing price of the market in that corresponding time frame. The green bars are just the opposite; top is the closing price, and bottom is the opening price. The wicks on the top and bottom represent any trading in that period that is outside of the opening and closing bounds. We include these charts so that you can see what the market is doing with some greater context. Feel free to hit us up with any questions on how to read these charts. Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown) Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ Last week the market began to move down and our short-term indicator was triggered to a sell, and last Wednesday we went inverse again. We are in a "mountain road" environment that is requiring quick and decisive action. particularly as it relates to going inverse. We will remain in the inverse position until the market triggers a short-term buy, which may be soon, but not necessarily. We will keep you posted. By way of review, you can see that we have included two different charts. One is a "Weekly" chart of the S&P 500 index (AKA "the market"), and the other is a "Monthly" chart of the S&P 500 index. Each bar represents the aggregation of either a week or a month's activity. The top of the red bars represent the opening price and the bottom of the red bar represents the closing price of the market in that corresponding time frame. The green bars are just the opposite; top is the closing price, and bottom is the opening price. The wicks on the top and bottom represent any trading in that period that is outside of the opening and closing bounds. We include these charts so that you can see what the market is doing with some greater context. Feel free to hit us up with any questions on how to read these charts. Weekly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown) Monthly S&P 500 Chart (with all-time hi shown)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ Review of the past and adjustments for the future. Some significant changes were made during the last two years due to a drastic change in how bonds performed in relationship to stocks. Problem:
(Bear Market of 2022 S&P500 -24% vs Long Term Bonds -32%)
We have been long the market since the “line in the sand” level of 4607 previous high of 7/27 was penetrated. Since then, the market has risen about 2 ½%. Therefore, we are currently in line with how the market has been moving in recent weeks. Keep in mind another “line in the sand”, which would be the previous all-market high of 4818 made on January 4, 2022. This is the “line in the sand” that the market must penetrate to leave the bear market in the rear-view mirror. Although we are not out of the woods yet, we will keep you posted. This new long position (terminology for going with the upward trajectory of the market) may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a more timely fashion. We will keep you posted. If this more sensitive signal continues to indicate a breakout, this will change the longer-term signal from CASH to a BUY. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ We have been "long the market" (terminology for going with the upward trajectory of the market) since the “line in the sand” level of 4607 was penetrated during the week of 12/11. The significance of the 4607 level is that it was a previous high for many months which occurred on July 27th, 2023. Since 12/13, the market has risen about 3 ½% with about ½% of that being this last week. Therefore, we are in line with what the market is doing. Keep in mind another “line in the sand”, which would be the previous all-market high of 4818 made on January 4, 2022. This is the “line in the sand” that the market must penetrate in order to leave the bear market in the rear-view mirror. Although we are not out of the woods yet. This new long position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. If this new signal shows to be a continuing successful breakout, we will change the longer-term signal from CASH to a BUY. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ Why the level of 4607 previous high of 7/27 was a “line in the sand” that was important. The high of 4607 completed on 7/27 was a retracement of the previous large decline that started in January of 2022. Up until now, because the retracement did not exceed 100% of the previous decline, technical analysts would categorize this a bear market rally until proven otherwise. That assessment appeared to be accurate to date, as the market continued downward after this retracement another 10% decline from the 7/27 high of 4607 to a low Oct 27th of 4103, before beginning another rally to presumably retrace that decline. However, once the rally exceeds 100% of the previous decline and exceeds 4607 and successfully breaks out above that resistance line, than it reverts to a bullish pattern to possibly exit the bear market status. So this “line in the sand” was being watched very carefully. Last Friday, Dec 8th intraday the market barely exceeded the “line in the sand” high of 7/27 by only 3 points and then hesitated and closed below it at 4604. This was noted as a “shot across the bow” warning and Monday we moved out of the inverse position and to a cash position at market open Monday. However, a successful breakout consists of the market materially penetrating the resistance level and then usually retesting to see if it now serves as support instead of resistance. That was the activity seen on Monday and Tuesday when on Monday the market opened below the 4607 level at 4593, however intra-day rose above the 4607 and closed at 4622, followed by Tuesday doing a retest of the 4607 resistance with an intra-day low of 4608 and then closing the day at 4643. Monday and Tuesday’s activity is what was the confirming activity needed to exit our one day cash position and on Wednesday at opening of the market actually moved to a bullish position going with the trend of the market. The market surged on Wednesday with about a 1 ½% gain, so our action paid off so far. So instead of an intermediate top in a bear market, the market now has taken on some bullish possibilities. Therefore, we are getting in line with what the market is doing. Keep in mind another “line in the sand”, which would be the previous all-market high of 4818 made on January 4, 2022. This is the “line in the sand” that the market must penetrate in order to leave the bear market in the rear view mirror. Although we are not out of the woods yet, we will keep you posted. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we took an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We stayed in that position until our shorter-term indicators showed otherwise. Now we have more or less made a round trip, except with this breakout, we have eliminated the inverse positions and gone with the market. This new long (terminology for going with the upward trajectory of the market) position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. If this new signal shows to be a continuing successful breakout, we will change the longer term signal from CASH to a BUY. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ The market broke out and penetrated through the previous high of 7/27 earlier this week. This is a major bullish breakout. Last Friday intra-day it exceeded the high of 7/27 and then hesitated, closing below it. However, on Monday and Tuesday it closed above the 7/27 high confirming the breakout at least for the short term. On Wednesday we eliminated the inverse positions and today we have entered into a long position in line with a rising market. So instead of an intermediate top in a Bear market, the market now has taken on some bullish possibilities. Therefore, we are getting in line with what the market is doing. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we took an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We stayed in that position until our shorter-term indicators showed otherwise this week. Now we have more or less made a round trip, except with this breakout, we have eliminated the inverse positions and gone with the market. This new long position (terminology for going with the upward trajectory of the market), may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. If this new signal shows to be a successful breakout, we will change the longer term signal from CASH to a BUY. For those self-managing their 401k accounts, remain in a "CASH" position until the long-term signal has a confirmed "BUY". Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ The market retrace has extended, however it is showing some hesitation as intra-day on Friday reached the high of 7/27 and then closed below it. However, as you can see in the weekly chart, the market has now retraced the entire decent from the recent high of 7/27/2023. It appears that last week the market may have reached an intermediate top, time will tell. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we have taken an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We will stay in that position until our shorter-term indicators show otherwise. This position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ In the last week, the market retrace has extended slightly, however it is showing hesitation and has not exceeded the high of 7/27. As you can see in the weekly chart, the retracement has retraced about 90% of the decent from the recent high of 7/27/2023. It appears that last week the market may have reached an intermediate top, time will tell. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we have taken an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We will stay in that position until our shorter-term indicators show otherwise. This position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ The market retrace has extended, but has not exceeded the high of 7/27. Stated another way, the market has re-gained much of what has been lost since the high on 7/27, however, the retracement has been about 80% of the decent from the recent high from 7/27/2023. You can see this visually on the weekly chart below by looking at the last four weeks (four green bars on the right). It appears that last week the market may have reached an intermediate top (meaning that it may be ready to continue on the downward trend), time will tell. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we have taken an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We will stay in that position until our shorter-term indicators show otherwise. This position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
S.T.A.Y.™ current position for Active portion of portfolio: CASH – S.T.A.Y. Plus™ The market retrace has extended, but has not exceeded the high of 7/27. As you may remember, we invested inverse to the market in early August and made money as the market dropped substantially. The market has rebounded but has not reached the level of where we invested inversely. As you can see in the weekly chart, the retracement has been about 75% of the decent from the recent high of 7/27/2023. Also mentioned in previous weeks, we are in a “mountain road” market, therefore we have taken an inverse position on 8/11/2023. We will stay in that position until our shorter-term indicators show otherwise. This position may be for a few days or a few weeks as we will be operating off of our shorter-term indicators to make changes as needed in a timelier fashion. We will keep you posted. Weekly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high) Monthly S&P 500 Chart with Fibonacci Retracement Percentages (from the all-time high)
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